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May 24, 2013, 09:57:56 AM
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Author Topic: It's just about time to start hammering Iran  (Read 1513 times)
ScutMonkey
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« Reply #50 on: August 20, 2004, 01:36:36 PM »

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Originally posted by: Overkill
France was a complete shambles for YEARS after that with it's revolving door governments
Pardon? I think you're getting a little muddled up. France went back to a monarchy, then recovered its strength under Napoleon III sufficently to be a major European broker again long before its colonial period.


The first half of the 19th century was devastating for France.  There was Napolean, there was the aftermath, there were the coups of 1848, 51, and 70.  France was in serious political turmoil for most of that century.

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Such as?


Let's just take the worst year as an example.  Austria-Hungary, France, and Prussia all had violent coups in 1848.  ***EDIT*** A list of 19th Century wars

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Erm, 27 million dead, not including those liquidated in Concentration camps. I doubt anybody wanted a major war to break out, which was why I made the orginal point. Many felt, (with justification) that Ronnies bluster would lead to exactly that.


And my contention is that Reagan's tough stance towards the Soviets prevented more Afghanistans.  After Vietnam, the Soviets saw us as weak and soft.  They though they could do whatever they wanted and we'd roll over.  They were right under Carter.  Carter's response to the Afghanistan invasion?  We're not going to the Olympics.  Wow, that's moxy right there.  

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Thats funny I thought that was down to overpricing of hotels and tickets, while the latter was down to expense. I also seem to recall that Sydney was one of the most succesful olympics ever.


Not over here.  TV ratings are way down on all the olympics since the Soviets fell.  NBC has taken a major hit on the olympics the last few times.

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I wouldn't argue that there was an edge to things due to East West rivalry, but economics ended the Cold war, as it did so many other things - including the space race.

MAD so nearly happened, too many times, for it to be a commendable or successful idea....................


I'm not going to say MAD is commendable, but I'm not going to sell it's strong points short either.  The fact of the matter is, the two largest superpowers in the world didn't fight a direct war for the entire span of the USSR's lifetime.  That's pretty unreal considering how much tension and annimosity there was.  I think MAD had something important to do with that.  It made reasonable/rational leaders realize if they used nukes, they'd lose even if they won.  The point of conquest is to take something valuable.  There's nothing valuable about a dead, unlivable land scorched by nuclear weapons.  Reagan's bluster wasn't, "I'm going to nuke you."  His bluster was, "I'm going to point nukes at you to make sure you continue to behave."  The Soviets had already demonstrated in Eastern Europe that they were more than willing to roll in the heavy armor and install puppet governments.  If we didn't rattle a few sabers they'd have been happy to finish the job in the West.

Look, 24/7 peace and love are wonderful pie in the sky ideals, but they aren't realistic.  
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Timster
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« Reply #51 on: August 22, 2004, 10:57:35 AM »

If we want to make change in Iraq, it may be better to do so by opening up relations with them.  By no means am I saying anything by letting our guard down, but the it's hard for their leaders to tell their people we're the great satan when we're offering better diplomatic relations.  The Iranian government has been loosening it's grip on their people over the years and allowing more western influences into the country, and despite their ultra conservative president, their congress is fairly moderate if not a bit liberal.  This may be an opportunity to win some hearts and minds.
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Babar
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« Reply #52 on: August 23, 2004, 08:25:00 PM »

Liberal President (Mohammed Khatami) you mean, and ultra conservative ruler (the Ayatollah Ali Khameini). The President has had difficulty in presiding as the Council there has the power to override any action he takes, as well as any action of the Congress there, quite a difficult governing situation, but Khatami is actually not conservative compared to the hardliners!
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Timster
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« Reply #53 on: August 23, 2004, 09:54:07 PM »

Thanks for setting it straight.  I knew there was a contrast of people in power, but not sure of titles.  
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Babar
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« Reply #54 on: August 23, 2004, 11:40:58 PM »

Yes, the Governing Council which is composed of Islamic hard liners has a stranglehold on politics there, with the power to veto any action of the actual 'government.' Actually during the last election the Council decided that many incumbent Iranian Assembly members were 'ineligible' to run for re-election (I think about 100) so there was a massive boycott by the liberals, so now the Congress is more conservative.... Whew.
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Overkill
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« Reply #55 on: August 27, 2004, 08:10:19 PM »

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The first half of the 19th century was devastating for France. There was Napolean, there was the aftermath, there were the coups of 1848, 51, and 70. France was in serious political turmoil for most of that century.
The empire was devastating??? Only for other people. Frances regime changes between the 1830's and 51 affected not one jot her position in Europe, or in fact the majority of Frenchmen. Napleon III's reign was one of a return of France as a major power broker. France restored her Prestige by the 1880's much of Bismarks dismay. Hence he spent much of his later years trying  to keep France busy with Colonial deals. That Bismark eh? Obviously not the smart dude we thought he was, as unlike that clever scut fella he rated France as a serious danger............

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just take the worst year as an example. Austria-Hungary, France, and Prussia all had violent coups in 1848
Yes they did, all of which fizzled out by 49 with lasting effects in only one country - France. By 1849 the autocrats had regained full control of all the major powers and weren't to lose it until 1917-18. Great list, so what? Most of those were, unlike the post 45 ' era short, low loss of life, conflicts. They were also mainly Imperial border conflicts or internal squabbles. The only major wars were restricted to six to 8 months. Thats one of the major reasons why they thought WW1 would be over by Christmas ........ If anything that list only proves my point. In fact WW1 is case in point. The theory was that there were two, vast, opposing armies so big that neither side would dare attack one another, there was only one problem, it was BS. Sooner or later force X, or the external factor forces your hand. And when that happens..............

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And my contention is that Reagan's tough stance towards the Soviets prevented more Afghanistans
Which is classicly "the world revolves around the US" as is
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Not over here. TV ratings are way down on all the olympics since the Soviets fell. NBC has taken a major hit on the olympics the last few times.
. First the Soviets own long standing problems prevented external action, not Reagans bluster, as even Soviet officals admitted they were "sucked into Afghanistan" rather than going willingly, and second who cares whether the insular, head up their own ASS, American viewing public doesn't watch the Olympics cos' theres no unpleasant rivalries going on? Everybody else is enjoying for the opposite reason!!!    

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The Soviets had already demonstrated in Eastern Europe that they were more than willing to roll in the heavy armor and install puppet governments. If we didn't rattle a few sabers they'd have been happy to finish the job in the West.
Unfortunatley for that theory is that Soviet documents prove that wasn't the case. Equally sadly for MAD, as before, Breznehev was building up the Soviet forces in the way he did in the 70's because he felt that a quick strike would nullify the Wests capabality, and that all out war, MAD, or no MAD was winnable. With loons like that MAD is the right word. But it obviously had no effect on his plans. I think we're luckier to be here, than here by design. Had the Soviets just had a few dollars (and thefore tanks) more we might be sitting in bunkers writing this right now............... MAD broke down because as with WW1, theres always someone who thinks an unwinnable war is winnable. Ironically war only didn't come about because the Soviets overspent, not because they thought we'd all end in ashes  - the leaders wouldn't. Sensible politicans and cool heads be damned.

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And yet oddly enough, they've haven't come to full scale war in that time. I wonder why...
Because ever other bugger didn't fancy a few nukes going off nearby!! Those nutcases pushed to the wire on more than a few occasions, in fact "we British" can take a good deal of credit for stopping thing's going pear (or should that be mushroom?) shaped. MAD be damned...........  
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